Forecasting through Role Playing

E. Forrest Christian Risk Management Leave a Comment

http://www-marketing.wharton.upenn.edu/people/faculty/armstrong2.html#forecasting

For example. Kesten C. Green has a great paper on the efficacy of role playing vs. game theory vs. individual assessment for conflicts involving small numbers of parties with a lot at stake. He finds that role playing is the only forecasting method he tested that actually predicts what will happen.

http://www-marketing.wharton.upenn.edu/forecast/paperpdf/Greenforecastinginconflict.pdf

Green did a study of how well forecasting methods successfully predict the outcome of conflicts involving small numbers of people with lots at stake. He discovered that only role playing actually predicted better than guessing.

So why aren’t we role playing more often? Cult of the Expert?

About the Author

Forrest Christian

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E. Forrest Christian is a consultant, coach, author, trainer and speaker at The Manasclerk Company who helps managers and experts find insight and solutions to what seem like insolvable problems. Cited for his "unique ability and insight" by his clients, Forrest has worked with people from almost every background, from artists to programmers to executives to global consultants. Forrest lives and works plain view of North Carolina's Mount Baker.  [contact]

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