Uncertainty Love bringing Garlands of Success

E. Forrest Christian Decision-making Leave a Comment

All work involves managing uncertainty, and all decisions are made in the face of it. As Michael Raynor pointed out in The Strategy Paradox: Why committing to success leads to failure (and what to do about it), uncertainty gets larger the higher that you go in the business. At lower levels, I’m still worried about uncertainty but I’m trying to …

Black man working large electric phosphate smelting furnace make elemental phosphorus, TVA chemical plant Muscle Shoals, AL). 1942 by Alfred T. Palmer (via LOC)

Managerials Decisions Requiring ESP?

E. Forrest Christian Decision-making Leave a Comment

You may have gotten the impression that Gary Klein’s Recognition-Primed Decision Model (PDF) was based on intuition. You would be in good company. Lots of people who write about RPD infer that it’s all about intuition, about gut feelings, about making fast decisions. That’s not really true. It may have been the many firefighter stories. The chief at the kitchen …

Football men exercising, Harvard. (LOC). Bain News Service, ca. 1910

Less Really Is More For Making Good Decisions

E. Forrest Christian Decision-making Leave a Comment

On the Commutecast this week, I talked about how Gerg Gigerenzer and colleagues have shown that a simple algorithm can out-perform a complex one in predicting future events (PDF). It’s not just that getting the information is expensive — whether you are hunting it down or finding it, collecting data costs you effort and often resources. It’s that even where …

Defense.gov News Photo 120324-M-AV740-001 by Staff Sgt. Clinton Firstbrook, U.S. Marine Corps (2012)

Make A Better Decision Using Intuition—With Data!

E. Forrest Christian Decision-making Leave a Comment

As I said in Just Make A Decision!, my father was an advocate of “Just make a decision!” You might have thought that this meant that he didn’t think that data and information could help you make better decisions. You wouldn’t be farther from the truth. My father was a Statistical Process Control expert, which became Quality Control which became …

Men of Fort Story operate an azimuth instrument, to measure the angle of splash in sea-target practice. 1942. (reversed)

Learn Decisional Due Date and Build Dynamic, Decision-Driven Organizations

E. Forrest Christian Decision-making Leave a Comment

Elliott Jaques is rightly praised for many things: first one to apply the ideas of social culture to the life inside organizations; identified and named the “mid-life crisis” (sorry Gail Sheehy!); led the longest on-site social research efforts at Glacier Metal Company, running some 25 years; and developing a method for building the requisite organizational structure for any managerial endeavor. …

Oklahoma Land Rushm 1893 by William S Prettyman

“Just make a decision!”

E. Forrest Christian Decision-making Leave a Comment

Last time we heard from Danny Fleming, the banking executive, who said that his success was in a large part due to his ability to make decisions when others would dither. This time I’m going to a Danny closer to home: my late father, “Danny” Christian. I was reminded of his thinking on decision making recently when a relative told …

Gaza protest Amsterdam by Jos van Zetten (CC BY 2.0)

Talking Too Complex Will Destroy Communication

E. Forrest Christian Decision-making 3 Comments

Did you ever think that by really pounding a logical point home you are destroying your success as a communicator? You get into an argument with a relative at a wedding dinner, say. He’s arguing some asinine point that’s clearly in violation of any semblance of reality. You provide key proofs. He fights back. You esalate your logic with more …

Looking down at Château-d'Oex from our chateau on after a snowfall. © E. Forrest Christian.

Software Architecture: There Is No One Right Way

E. Forrest Christian Computers/IT, Decision-making Leave a Comment

I spent some time perusing the programming stacks at Seattle’s main library today, and skimmed through some texts on software architecture. Perhaps the most interesting was 97 Things Every Software Architect Should Know: Collective Wisdom from the Experts (ed. Richard Monson-Haefel). It’s a collection of various two-page thoughts from people who do software architecture from across the globe. Think Chicken …