For everyone who thinks that my economic outlook has been bleak, I offer you Saxo Bank’s (Switzerland) predictions that 2009 is when we will see the worst. Their 10 Outrageous Predictions are unfortunately within the realm of reasonable speculation at this point.
No one can predict the future. However, we can say that the level of uncertainty has increased to a point where outlier arguments have less risk.
London and Copenhagen – 17 December 2008: Crude trading at $25. S&P 500 falls 50% to 500. China’s GDP growth falls to zero. EURUSD falls to 0.95. Italy to leave the ERM. If Saxo Bank’s 10 outrageous claims for the year ahead transpire, economic conditions will worsen dramatically in 2009. “The good thing is, overall, we predict 2009 will be a turning point because it can’t get much worse” says chief economist David Karsbøl.
The Copenhagen-based online trading and investment specialist’s predictions are compiled as part of the 2009 Outlook and thought exercise, and are an annual attempt to predict ‘black swan’ sightings in the global markets, and this year present a dismal view. Black swan events are high impact, rare occurrences that are beyond the realm of normal expectations.
Yay! Seven years of famine!
I found this through Prabhu Guptara, who is a bit nuanced in his agreement.
Guptara is worth listening to. He’s a Swiss banking person who has appeared on NPR’s Speaking of Faith a couple of times:
- SOF FIRST PERSON (audio) | Repossessing Virtue: Prabhu Guptara on Applying Personal Moral Sense to One’s Work Life – 14:33 – [iTunes link]
- The God’s of Business: Krista Tippett interviews Prabhu Guptara on the Ethics of Business – 53:22 [iTunes link]
Guptara recently presented his opinions about the root of the financial crisis as being spiritual to a political convention in Geneva. Regrettably, his speech has yet to be posted in translation. (I have a copy sent to me by a mutual friend and can send along.) But perhaps we will see it when he gets around to redoing his website.